The Potential Rebound of Banks in 2024

Investors in various industries can look forward to a new year with optimism, but those holding bank stocks may have extra reason to be happy. While the year ahead is expected to bring challenges, many of the struggles faced by lenders are already in the past, even if the economy worsens.

Throughout much of 2023, banks were seen as risky investments after three major lenders collapsed due to higher interest rates. This caused fear among investors that more banks would fail. Despite the fact that banks consistently demonstrated their resilience through strong quarterly earnings reports and passing stress tests conducted by the Federal Reserve, Wall Street remains cautious about bank stocks. The likelihood of tougher regulations has contributed to this sentiment.

However, the stock prices of banks already reflect many of the challenges they face. Recently, Wall Street has begun to recognize that the sector offers potential opportunities as interest rates have fallen. The Nasdaq Bank Index has already increased by 16% this quarter, surpassing the 7% gain in the S&P 500, according to Alexander Twerdahl, managing director at Piper Sandler.

As we enter 2024, one of the primary concerns for investors will be banks' net interest margins. These margins represent the difference between the interest earned on assets and the interest paid out to depositors and other lenders. Higher interest rates have caused these margins to narrow, as banks are forced to pay more for funds.

However, Twerdahl believes that the worst may soon be over. He predicts that margins will only narrow by 0.07 percentage point between now and the first quarter of 2024. After that, declining interest rates are expected to relieve pressure on banks to pay higher rates to depositors, while still allowing them to earn interest on loans and other assets.

Twerdahl adds, "As the forward curve now suggests four rate cuts for 2024, we could see more banks turning to borrowings in the near term. They hope to acquire fixed-rate assets with attractive yields and reduce asset sensitivity."

Investors looking to benefit from the potential rebound of the banking sector can consider investing through an exchange-traded fund like the SPDR S&P Bank ETF. Alternatively, a stock-picking approach may also be a viable option.

The Prospects for Banks in 2024

Analysts at UBS express doubt that the banking sector as a whole will outperform the market in 2024. This skepticism stems from the unusual interest-rate environment that banks have been operating in for an extended period. Since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, interest rates have remained near zero, with additional accommodating measures implemented during the pandemic. The process of adjusting to the "rapid normalization" of rates may come with its own challenges, warns the bank.

Erika Najarian, an analyst at UBS, raises thought-provoking questions about the potential consequences of a decade of zero interest rate policy followed by an injection of funds into the US economy during the pandemic and finally the swift normalization of rates. Najarian wonders whether these significant events will have no material impact.

Interestingly, a scenario in which the Federal Reserve successfully tackles inflation without causing a recession could actually keep bank valuations in a holding pattern, Najarian suggests. When investors anticipate a recession, banks typically trade at relatively low price/earnings ratios in the high single digits. However, these ratios tend to rise to around 15 times following an economic slowdown. It seems paradoxical that banks breaking out could be contingent on a recession. According to Najarian, if banks demonstrate that a recession affects earnings per share (EPS) rather than capital significantly, long-term investors may regain confidence in them.

Najarian identifies Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase as her preferred choices, citing their lower vulnerability to substantial loan losses compared to other lenders. Additionally, she considers banks with their own recovery narratives such as Wells Fargo, which is currently undergoing a turnaround following a fake-accounts scandal in 2016, and Truist Financial, which intends to divest its remaining stake in its insurance business.

In conclusion, while the prospects for the banking sector may not immediately soar, Najarian believes that selected banks have the potential to thrive. The ability of these institutions to withstand economic downturns and prove that recessions are more of an EPS event than a capital event could make them attractive reinvestment options for long-term investors.