Sweden's Debt Office Forecasts Budget Deficits

The National Debt Office of Sweden predicts budget deficits for 2024 and 2025 after three years of surplus. This change has led to an increase in government-bond issuance targets for both years, as outlined in the borrowing review released on Thursday.

Budget Forecast

• 2024: Expected deficit of 84 billion Swedish kronor.
• 2025: Anticipated deficit of 50 billion Swedish kronor.

Reasoning

The Debt Office attributes this shift to weakened tax income and increased government spending post-pandemic. Director General Karolina Ekholm highlighted the need for a capital contribution to the Riksbank as a factor in the increased borrowing requirements.

Adjustments in Bond Issuance

For 2024, the government-bond issuance target has been raised to SEK73 billion (from SEK60 billion), while for 2025, it now stands at SEK80 billion (previously SEK60 billion). Issuance targets for inflation-linked bonds remain unchanged.

Response to Growing Borrowing Requirement

As the need for borrowing grows, the Debt Office plans to increase the auction volume of nominal bonds in two phases. Starting in March, it will be raised to SEK3.5 billion, eventually reaching SEK4 billion by August.

Expert Insights

Nordea analyst Gustav Helgesson points out that the NDO's GDP and employment forecasts are optimistic compared to Nordea's projections. This divergence may lead to a revision of the borrowing plan later in the year. Helgesson also warns of potential underestimation of budget deficits, particularly for 2025.

In conclusion, while the current adjustments have been made to accommodate the changing financial landscape, further revisions might be necessary as economic conditions evolve.