This week, traders brace themselves for several noteworthy events that are set to impact the financial markets. Among these events are the Federal Reserve policy decision, details of Treasury's upcoming auction sizes, and Friday's official jobs report for January. Regardless of the outcome of these events, automated trading strategies are expected to dominate the market, with a high likelihood of purchasing stock indexes, bonds, and gold across various scenarios.
According to Daniel Ghali, a senior commodity strategist for TD Securities based in Toronto, professional investment managers are taking advantage of the current market stability to re-leverage their positions. This can be seen in the decreased expected volatility in both the U.S. stock market, as measured by the Cboe VIX Index (VIX), and the Treasury market, as reflected in the ICE BofAML MOVE Index.
Ghali explains that investment managers are poised to buy stock futures, Treasuries, and gold regardless of whether their prices are rising or falling. TD Securities has conducted simulations on future price paths for equity futures, U.S. government debt, and gold to outline different performance scenarios. The three categories used to describe these paths are "downtape," "flat tape," and "uptape."
In most situations, Ghali asserts that commodity trading advisers (CTAs), who are professional investment managers using futures and options contracts to profit from global market movements, are expected to buy across all asset classes. The only exception to this expectation would be an extreme surprise that significantly impacts the Treasury market. CTAs manage substantial amounts of capital and possess the ability to influence market direction.
Ghali highlights the bullish signals in both U.S. and EU equity indices and states that their simulations suggest CTAs are likely to continue buying even in a significant downtape scenario. In a note published on Tuesday, he states, "Every single trend signal on our radar is already pointing to the upside in U.S. and EU equity indices, but our simulations of future price paths suggest that CTAs are likely to buy more, even in a big downtape."
- Traders anticipate important events such as the Federal Reserve policy decision, Treasury auction sizes, and the official jobs report.
- Automated trading strategies are expected to dominate the market and purchase stock indexes, bonds, and gold across various scenarios.
- Professional investment managers are re-leveraging their positions in a calmer financial market.
- Decreased volatility in the U.S. stock market and Treasury market supports the purchase of assets regardless of price movements.
- TD Securities' simulations outline different performance scenarios categorized as "downtape," "flat tape," and "uptape."
- Commodity trading advisers (CTAs) are likely to buy across all asset classes, except in extreme surprises impacting the Treasury market.
- CTAs, due to their significant capital and market influence, can shape market direction.
- The bullish signals in U.S. and EU equity indices highlight CTAs' propensity to continue buying even in significant downtapes.
CTAs Positioned for Bonds, Gold, and Await Fed Rate Decision
Investors are closely watching the U.S. government-debt market as the possibility of substantial forced selling activity looms. However, CTAs (Commodity Trading Advisors) remain confident in their position to buy bonds in nearly every scenario. According to experts, algorithmic-driven buying is expected, even if gold prices trade around $2,000 per ounce.
Wall Street dealers are eagerly waiting for the Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday and hoping for further clues on the timing of the first rate cut. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold between 5.25% to 5.5%. The announcement will be closely watched by investors seeking insights into the future direction of the market.
In the midst of anticipation, Treasury is set to announce upcoming note and bond auction sizes tomorrow. A revised estimate earlier this week revealed that the department expects to borrow a lower amount than initially projected - $760 billion during the first quarter.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock indexes are mixed in New York afternoon trading as investors observe developments. It is crucial to note that consumer confidence has risen this month and job openings remained steady in December, according to recent data.
Looking ahead, economists are anticipating a gain of 185,000 jobs in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for January, a slight decrease from December's figure of 216,000.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights into the market as events unfold.