Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced an upswing on Friday as risk-sensitive assets saw gains. However, traders remained cautious, anticipating potential declines following the appearance of a key technical indicator known as the "death cross" earlier this week.
The price of Bitcoin has risen by 1.5% in the past 24 hours, reaching $26,650. The leading digital asset continues to trade around the $26,000 mark, which has been a prominent level for the past month. While Bitcoin briefly experienced a sell-off and reached lows similar to those seen in mid-June earlier this week, it has since rebounded. This rebound marks a departure from the historically low volatility that characterized the previous months.
Rachel Lin, CEO of trading platform SynFutures, remarked, "After an initial scare at the start of the week, the crypto market quickly recovered and stabilized around the same levels it has been in for the past month." Lin also added, "Bitcoin is currently in the process of converting the $26,000 level from resistance to support. If Bitcoin can maintain a value above $26,000 by the end of the week, it could be seen as a positive sign."
In recent days, digital assets have followed the upward trajectory of the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average witnessed its best day since early August on Thursday, and the S&P 500 is on track for a three-day winning streak. However, despite these gains, the technical indicators suggest potential challenges for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Prices Form Death Cross, Indicating Downtrend
The recent formation of a death cross in Bitcoin prices has caught the attention of market analysts and investors alike. This widely observed technical indicator often signals a prevailing downtrend in prices or a shift in sentiment towards a bearish outlook. The death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average for prices falls below the 200-day moving average, a significant event that traders closely monitor.
Historical data from Dow Jones Market Data reveals that, on average, Bitcoin experiences a 2.3% decline in the week following a death cross. The most recent death cross marks the first occurrence since January 2022. During that period, Bitcoin began the month above $47,000 but subsequently endured a staggering 65% plunge in November.
It's not just the technicals that have analysts feeling pessimistic; the macroeconomic landscape also weighs heavily on sentiment. Heightened concerns over inflation and the likelihood of prolonged higher interest rates dampen demand for riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Conor Ryder, head of research and data at crypto infrastructure group Ethena Labs, shares his perspective on the market conditions: "There's currently too much uncertainty plaguing the market to expect any sustained rally for Bitcoin and other digital assets. Numerous factors are exerting downward pressure, particularly the unfavorable macro situation for long-duration assets, especially within the crypto space."
While Bitcoin grapples with these challenges, other cryptocurrencies show mixed performance. Ether - the second-largest crypto - experiences a marginal 1% rise, reaching $1,630. Meanwhile, smaller tokens like Cardano and Polygon enjoy modest increases of 1% each. Memecoins also see gains, with Dogecoin advancing by 1% and Shiba Inu rising by 2%.
In conclusion, the formation of the death cross in Bitcoin prices raises concerns among market participants. The prevailing macroeconomic backdrop and uncertain market conditions cast a shadow on any immediate hopes for a sustained rally in Bitcoin and other digital assets.