U.S. stock futures remained relatively unchanged early on Thursday, maintaining their position near two-month highs following a strong rally. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed 164 points, or 0.47%, reaching 34,991. The S&P 500 (SPX) saw a slight increase of 7 points, or 0.16%, bringing it to 4,503. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) experienced a gain of 9 points, or 0.07%, reaching 14,104.
Consolidation After Recent Rally
Futures suggest that equity indices are currently consolidating after their recent impressive performance. The S&P 500 is currently at its highest level since September 14, with gains in 11 of the last 13 sessions and a month-to-date increase of 7.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has displayed gains in 12 of the last 14 days and has risen by 9.75% so far in November. Additionally, the Russell 2000 index (RUT) of small caps has gained 8.4% during the same period.
Decrease in Borrowing Costs Boosts Markets
One of the key drivers behind these rallies has been a decline in borrowing costs. The 10-year Treasury yield (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) has dropped from a 16-year high above 5% reached last month to 4.50%. This decrease has been attributed to optimism surrounding a cooling U.S. jobs market and easing inflation, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates by mid-next year.
Confidence in Soft Landing and Corporate Earnings
Investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve's approximate 500-basis-point rate hikes during this cycle will not lead to a sharp economic slowdown in the U.S. They believe that a so-called soft landing will still provide support for corporate earnings. The CBOE VIX index (VIX), a measure of expected market volatility, has traded back down to 14, indicating improved investor confidence. Additionally, the S&P 500's 14-day relative strength index has shifted from an oversold indication to the cusp of overbought in just three weeks. However, some observers are advising caution due to concerns that the market may have surged too far too quickly.
"Stock futures indicated a subdued opening amidst concerns that the market has jumped too far over its skis," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
Market Speculation on Fed Easing Cycle Raises Concerns
Traders and investors are questioning whether the recent run of weak U.S. macro data justifies an expected easing cycle by the Federal Reserve in late Q1 2024. Many worry that the markets may be overestimating the chances of significant accommodation by the Fed, according to market experts.
Market Volatility Reveals Underlying Fragility
After-hours trading on Wednesday reflected the market's fragility, as Cisco Systems reported disappointing results, causing a sharp drop of over 10% in the company's stock. This serves as a reminder that the market remains vulnerable to negative developments.
Earnings Reports to Watch
Walmart, Macy's, and Williams-Sonoma are set to report their earnings before the opening bell, while Applied Materials, Gap, and Beazer Homes will present theirs after the market closes. These reports will provide further insight into the health of various sectors.
Improvement in Equity Market Breadth
Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat, highlights the positive shift in the equity market. The recent rally has seen a broader participation of shares, not just driven by big tech stocks. This improved breadth could potentially extend the market's advance in the coming days.
Challenges on the Horizon
Despite the recent gains, Newton cautions against short-term overbought conditions and negative momentum trends on weekly and monthly charts. He suggests that any further rally into next week may encounter significant resistance, making short-term risk/reward less favorable for U.S. equities.
Key Economic Updates and Fed Officials' Comments
On Thursday, several important economic updates are scheduled, including the weekly initial jobless claims, the October import price index, and the November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey. Additionally, industrial production and capacity utilization for October will be published, followed by November's home builder confidence report.
Several Fed officials will also make comments throughout the day, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Their remarks may provide further insight into the central bank's perspective on the economic landscape.
Overall, the markets remain cautious and vigilant, closely monitoring data releases, earnings reports, and comments from Fed officials in order to assess the future course of action.