The consumer staples sector in U.S. stocks has taken a hit this year as investors have shifted away from dividend-paying shares towards higher yields and lower risks in U.S. Treasuries.
According to FactSet data, the consumer staples sector (XX:SP500.30) is currently the second-worst performing sector in the S&P 500 index (SPX) in 2023. If this trend continues, it will mark the largest yearly drop for the sector since 2018.
With a year-to-date decline of 9.3%, the consumer staples sector has significantly underperformed the broader index, which has seen a 13.4% increase. In contrast, the best performing sector, information technology (XX:SP500.45), has gained an impressive 39.5% over the same period.
Consumer staples stocks are generally considered defensive investments or "bond proxies" because they can help investors minimize the impact of stock market losses or economic downturns. Companies within this sector, such as Coca-Cola Company (KO) and PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), produce and sell products or services that consumers continue to purchase regardless of economic conditions.
Despite their defensive nature, consumer staples stocks have faced considerable pressure this year. The continuous rise in U.S. Treasury yields (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) has made these defensive stocks less appealing compared to government-issued bonds or money-market funds, especially as the economy remains strong and recession expectations are pushed further out. Additionally, the Federal Reserve plans to implement a "higher-for-longer" strategy to raise interest rates above the current range of 5-5.25% and maintain them at that level to curb inflation.
Many market participants believe that certain consumer staples stocks are now trading at a significant discount compared to the broader benchmark index, making it an opportune time to enter the market. For instance, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) is currently trading at a 2% discount, indicating an attractive entry point, as noted by a team of UBS analysts led by Peter Grom, an equity research analyst.
Consumer Staples Sector Faces Challenges amidst Rising Rates Environment
The consumer staples sector, while still more expensive compared to its historical trend, is facing potential downside risks in the current rate-sensitive market. This was highlighted by analysts at UBS in a recent note. According to their regression analysis, there is still room for the consumer staples sector to experience further decline in the next-twelve-month P/E multiple. Specifically, the current multiple stands at 17.7x, while the analysis suggests a potential level of 16x. Given the uncertain backdrop, UBS analysts advise caution and suggest exercising patience before entering the market.
Considering the broader confluence of a rising rate environment, upcoming third-quarter earnings reports for consumer staples companies will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment. However, UBS analysts are skeptical that these earnings prints will be sufficient to significantly alter the recent underperformance of the sector.
It is important to understand that as the yields of certain risk-free assets increase, shares of consumer staples companies become less attractive. This inverse relationship between bond price and yield impacts the valuations of these companies. As a result, assessing valuation becomes increasingly challenging. In such a scenario, positive estimate revisions and strategies for organic growth become even more critical for stock performance. UBS analysts anticipate that without significant beats in earnings or a return to volume growth, it may be difficult for most staples stocks to move higher this earnings season.
On Wednesday afternoon, mixed trading was observed in U.S. stocks as investors reacted to minutes from the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, as well as inflation data from the September producer-price index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) remained nearly flat at 33,785 points, while the S&P 500 showed a gain of 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose by 0.6%, as per FactSet data.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 consumer staples sector experienced a decline of 0.6% on Wednesday afternoon, with the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) dropping by 0.8%, according to FactSet data.